Figuring Out the Future

Mark Weinberg recommends:  Scott D. Anthony and Clayton M. Christensen, “Are You Reading the Right Signals,” September 2004, Strategy and Innovation (Harvard Business School)

“All of us make countless decisions every day based on what we think the future will hold. The challenge, naturally, is that the future rarely turns out as expected. Companies that appear to be poised to take off suddenly fizzle out; an analyst’s seemingly prescient predictions turn out to be 100% wrong. Determining whether a hyped innovation truly has the potential to transform an industry is a similarly challenging endeavor: Which developments are transformational and which will end up being more hype than reality.”

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